Probabilities of getting right
I think I do have a weird mentality..the way my brain works seems to differ from lots of people...the operations within my brain seems to be processing in a different order from well most of the people i know.
NO its not good...well there is a higher probability that I may be wrong and its hard to change...since I myself think I am right most of the time...but if others are right meaning i am wrong most of the time...but no one knows who's right...however given they have a probability of getting right as a group since they all think the same thing...then my probability would be 1-p.
With a high P, my probability will be much lower. Thus my expected return would be (1-P)Me right + P(they right)
However you can further expend the equation since, P represent a entire group of people. Therefore P=sum of p(notice the caps) the small p here represents all the individual that think i am wrong.
Therefore if P = np. Let n be the number of individuals that think they are right. As can be seen from the formula, The higher the n the smaller is p(small p), thus with a huge n the probability of each individual being right becomes smaller.
And since n in my case is freaking huge! I would say the probability of me getting right would be higher than every individual who goes against me. SO ultimately I am trying to say...I might win this after all.
Oh well but only time will tell...yah..who knows..but we are talking about expected return here and I dominate the rest of the individual! yeah!
NO its not good...well there is a higher probability that I may be wrong and its hard to change...since I myself think I am right most of the time...but if others are right meaning i am wrong most of the time...but no one knows who's right...however given they have a probability of getting right as a group since they all think the same thing...then my probability would be 1-p.
With a high P, my probability will be much lower. Thus my expected return would be (1-P)Me right + P(they right)
However you can further expend the equation since, P represent a entire group of people. Therefore P=sum of p(notice the caps) the small p here represents all the individual that think i am wrong.
Therefore if P = np. Let n be the number of individuals that think they are right. As can be seen from the formula, The higher the n the smaller is p(small p), thus with a huge n the probability of each individual being right becomes smaller.
And since n in my case is freaking huge! I would say the probability of me getting right would be higher than every individual who goes against me. SO ultimately I am trying to say...I might win this after all.
Oh well but only time will tell...yah..who knows..but we are talking about expected return here and I dominate the rest of the individual! yeah!
posted by limchunmeng at 12:18 PM
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